A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026, 14:30 | — | — | -0.054 | — |
| 23 Sep 2026, 14:30 | -0.054M | — | 0.336M | — |
| 16 Sep 2026, 14:30 | — | — | -0.537 | — |
| 10 Sep 2026, 16:00 | -0.537M | — | 0.073M | — |
| 02 Sep 2026, 14:30 | 0.073M | — | 0.061M | — |
| 26 Aug 2026, 14:30 | 0.061M | — | 0.143M | — |
| 19 Aug 2026, 14:30 | 0.143M | — | -0.001M | — |
| 12 Aug 2026, 14:30 | -0.001M | — | -0.309M | — |
| 05 Aug 2026, 14:30 | -0.309M | — | 0.178M | — |
| 29 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 0.178M | — | 0.06M | — |
| 22 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 0.06M | — | -0.096M | — |
| 15 Jul 2026, 14:30 | -0.096M | — | -0.233M | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.