A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026, 15:30 | 3.85% | — | 3.82% | — |
| 17 Sep 2026, 15:30 | 3.82% | — | 3.775% | — |
| 10 Sep 2026, 15:30 | 3.775% | — | 3.7% | — |
| 03 Sep 2026, 15:30 | 3.7% | — | 3.65% | — |
| 27 Aug 2026, 15:30 | 3.65% | — | 3.64% | — |
| 20 Aug 2026, 15:30 | 3.64% | — | 3.625% | — |
| 13 Aug 2026, 15:30 | 3.625% | — | 3.64% | — |
| 06 Aug 2026, 15:30 | 3.64% | — | 3.63% | — |
| 30 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 3.63% | — | 3.73% | — |
| 23 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 3.73% | — | 3.66% | — |
| 16 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 3.66% | — | 3.63% | — |
| 09 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 3.63% | — | 3.605% | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.