A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep 2026, 12:30 | 0.77BC$ | 3.6BC$ | 4.2BC$ | -2.83 |
| 04 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 3.86BC$ | 3BC$ | 3.7BC$ | +0.86 |
| 07 Jul 2026, 12:30 | 4.24BC$ | 2.9BC$ | 3.41BC$ | +1.34 |
| 09 Jun 2026, 12:30 | 2.72BC$ | 2.6BC$ | 1.75BC$ | +0.12 |
| 05 May 2026, 12:30 | 1.78BC$ | -2.9BC$ | -5.11BC$ | +4.68 |
| 02 Apr 2026, 12:30 | -5.74BC$ | -2.3BC$ | -4.18BC$ | -3.44 |
| 12 Mar 2026, 12:30 | -3.65BC$ | -0.9BC$ | -1.3BC$ | -2.75 |
| 19 Feb 2026, 13:30 | -1.31BC$ | -2.1BC$ | -2.59BC$ | +0.79 |
| 29 Jan 2026, 13:30 | -2.2BC$ | -0.7BC$ | -0.4BC$ | -1.5 |
| 08 Jan 2026, 13:30 | -0.58BC$ | -1.4BC$ | 0.24BC$ | +0.82 |
| 11 Dec 2025, 13:30 | 0.15BC$ | -4.5BC$ | -6.43BC$ | +4.65 |
| 07 Oct 2025, 12:30 | -6.32BC$ | -5.55BC$ | -3.82BC$ | -0.77 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.