A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep 2026, 15:30 | 4.155% | — | 4.06% | — |
| 14 Sep 2026, 15:30 | — | — | 3.89% | — |
| 08 Sep 2026, 15:30 | 3.89% | — | 3.885% | — |
| 31 Aug 2026, 15:30 | 3.885% | — | 3.79% | — |
| 24 Aug 2026, 15:30 | 3.79% | — | 3.78% | — |
| 17 Aug 2026, 15:30 | 3.78% | — | 3.83% | — |
| 03 Aug 2026, 15:30 | 3.855% | — | 3.945% | — |
| 27 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 3.945% | — | 3.835% | — |
| 20 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 3.835% | — | 3.86% | — |
| 13 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 3.86% | — | 3.83% | — |
| 06 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 3.83% | — | 3.84% | — |
| 29 Jun 2026, 15:30 | 3.84% | — | 3.84% | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.